Analisa Peramalan Penjualan Produk MCM Wordwide Dengan Metode Moving Average Dan Exponential Smoothing Pada PT Sumaco Wahana Utama Kebayoran Baru Jakarta Selatan
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.65255/jibma.v3i4.251Keywords:
Sales Forecasting, Moving Average, Exponential SmoothingAbstract
This study aims to analyze and compare the effectiveness of moving average and exponential smoothing methods in forecasting sales of MCM Worldwide products at PT Sumaco Wahana Utama Kebayoran Baru South Jakarta. The research uses a quantitative approach with historical sales data for 24 months period 2023-2024. The moving average method was applied with three period variations of 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months, while exponential smoothing was optimized with alpha parameters 0.1 to 0.9. Accuracy evaluation uses three indicators: Mean Absolute Error, Mean Absolute Percentage Error, and Root Mean Square Error. The results showed that the exponential smoothing method with alpha 0.3 provided the most accurate forecasting results with MAE value of 9.2 units, MAPE 14.8 percent, and RMSE 11.6 units, better than moving average 6 months with MAE 10.8 units, MAPE 17.4 percent, and RMSE 14.2 units. Exponential smoothing proved to be more adaptive to changing sales patterns of dynamic luxury fashion products. This study recommends the implementation of exponential smoothing for inventory management optimization and improving company operational efficiency.
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